Food Consumption

Arif Husain Siddharth Krishnaswamy Eliana Favari Amira Swedan Abdelrahman Hamza Chief Economist & Director Regional VAM Advisor Regional VAM Officer Regional Data Scientist VAM Programme Associate Research, Assessment and Monitoring Regional Bureau Cairo (RBC) Regional Bureau Cairo (RBC) Regional Bureau Cairo (RBC) Regional Bureau Cairo (RBC) Arif.Husain@wfp.org Siddharth.Krishnaswamy@wfp.org Eliana.Favari@wfp.org Amira.Swedan@wfp.org Abdelrahman.Hamza@wfp.org • The water level of the Euphrates River in Syria has declined since January 2021, reaching a critically low level in May 2021. The low water levels are believed to be a result of above average dry spells as well as a reduction of water flowing from Turkey to Syria. The Syrian Government reported that the Tishreen dam in Aleppo governorate received around 180 cubic meters of water per second during most of May. This represents less than half of the minimum amount of water outlined by the 1987 Syria-Turkey water sharing agreement, where at least 500 cubic meters of water per second are to be released from Turkey to Syria. Additionally, the water levels of Tabqa dam in Ar-Raqqa governorate, which is used as an emergency backup, were depleted by up to 80 percent. The water shortage crisis is concerning, given that nearly 5.5 million people in Syria rely on the Euphrates and its subsidiaries for drinking water and agriculture irrigation. Furthermore, the continued low water flow could result in loss of electricity for more than three million people as the Tishreen dam water-powered generators are shut, negatively impacting health care and sanitation, livelihoods, agricultural production and food security across the north and north-east regions of the country.

• On 9 May 2021, the Syrian Minister of Agriculture announced that harsh weather conditions and low rainfall levels have significantly reduced the amount of wheat across government-controlled areas this year. In northeast Syria, which is the country's wheat basket where typically 70 percent of Syrian wheat is produced, the Kurdish authorities announced that wheat production is expected to amount to around 500,000 tons this year, down from 850,000 tons last year. The reduction in wheat production is believed to be due to years of neglect and deforestation (throughout the prolonged conflict between 2012 and 2019, Syria lost around 20 percent of its tree cover), with now over 85 percent of Syrian agricultural land exposed to soil erosion. Additionally, shortages of foreign exchange reserves and unilateral coercive measures on the country complicated Syria's efforts to procure the required agricultural inputs on the open market. Moreover, on 12 May 2021, dozens of hectares of wheat and barley fields were reportedly burned by artillery bombardment in northwestern Aleppo. In response to the announcement of expected lower than average wheat yields, Russia's ambassador to Syria announced Russia's commitment to supply one million metric tons of wheat to the Government of Syria by the end of the year, having already supplied Syria with 350,000 metric tons since January 2021.
• COVID-19 continued to spread across Syria. As of 31 May 2021, a total of 24,495 COVID-19 cases, including 1,770 fatalities, were confirmed by the Minister of Health in government-controlled areas.
The monthly increase in COVID-19 cases in May (1,762 cases) signals a downward trend compared to April 2021 (3,824 cases). In Northeast Syria, the situation has deteriorated during the COVID-19 second wave as many hospitals continued to lack essential health supplies and most people experienced limited access to water and sanitation services to control the spread of the virus. In May 2021, around 17,819 COVID-19 cases were reported across northeast Syria, an increase of 1,891 new cases compared to the previous month, representing the second highest monthly caseload since December 2020. In response, Kurdish authorities extended the imposed partial lockdown in Kurdish-controlled areas across northeast Syria throughout most of May.
• The security situation remained volatile across Syria. In May 2021, intensified hostilities were reported in northwest Syria, with shelling largely concentrated in southern Idleb and northern Aleppo.
On 3 May 2021, an explosion was reported near Nadi Alfurusiah IDP camp in northern Idleb, resulting in civilian deaths and damaging approximately 50 tents. Moreover, the Islamic State continued its attacks across Deir-ez-zor, southern Al-Hasakeh, and the desert areas of Homs and Hama.

Methodology
This mVAM bulletin is based on data collected via live telephone interviews in May 2021 from households in locations across Syria. The phone numbers were generated using random-digit dialing. Data was collected from a sample of 1,307 respondents across 13 governorates (Idleb is not covered) during May 2021 and included parts of the holy month of Ramadan. As per standard survey procedures, respondents' consent was obtained prior to the interviews. For security and safety measures, all respondents were identified with an anonymous ID.

28% Displaced Households
• In May 2021, nearly two out of five interviewed households (37 percent) reported poor or borderline food consumption in Syria, with the highest levels recorded among female-headed households (44 percent). The national average rate of inadequate food consumption (poor and borderline combined) decreased by six percentage points month-on-month. The monthly decrease in inadequate food consumption levels in May is believed to be associated with the holy month of Ramadan and Eid Al-Fitr festivities, when households tend to eat more complete and better quality meals and vulnerable families have access to more assistance from charity organizations and zakat (a form of alms giving) provided as food or livestock. Despite the slight improvement in households' food consumption during May 2021, overall food insecurity persisted across Syria, and the national average rate of inadequate food consumption witnessed a nearly two-thirds increase (61 percent) compared to levels in May 2020, which also corresponded to Ramadan 2020.
• Broken down by governorate, in May 2021, the highest proportion of households with poor or borderline food consumption was recorded in Ar-Raqqa (60 percent), an increase of 20 percentage points year-on-year, followed by Aleppo (48 percent). On the other hand, Damascus (24 percent) recorded the lowest level of inadequate food consumption in May 2021, which however witnessed a nearly three-quarter percent increase from the level recorded in May 2020.
• During the reporting period, more than one out of ten interviewed households (11 percent) reported poor food consumption in Syria, a decrease of three percentage points from a month earlier and the lowest national average level recorded since July 2020. Despite the slight monthly improvement, which is believed to be largely induced by the observance of the holy month of Ramadan, the level of poor food consumption remained at worrisome levels throughout Syria, marking a two-fold increase compared to May 2020. This highlights a sustained deterioration of the food security situation countrywide. At governorate level, in May 2021, Al-Hasakeh (22 percent) recorded the highest proportion of households with poor food consumption, a nine percentage points increase month-on-month and a three-fold rise from May 2020, followed by Ar-Raqqa (20 percent) and Tartous (15 percent).
• According to residency status, in May 2021, around 40 percent of returnees reported inadequate food consumption, a threequarter increase year-on-year. Moreover, the total share of IDPs and resident households with poor or borderline food consumption reached 36 and 37 percent, respectively. May 2021, nearly nine out of ten interviewed households (89 percent) reported applying at least one food-based coping mechanism to meet their food consumption needs, an increase of nine percent since May 2020, with a higher proportion recorded among female-headed households (93 percent). As a result of the continued degradation of the coping capacity and purchasing power of Syrian households, more than seven out of ten interviewed households across Syria (73 percent) indicated that they bought food on credit (a three percentage points increase from a month earlier and up by 11 percent year-on-year), with a higher share recorded among female-headed households (80 percent). This trend was more pronounced in Homs (82 percent), with an increase of 15 percent since May 2020, followed by Al-Hasakeh (80 percent). Also, the reported adoption of this strategy was most common among returnees (79 percent) and IDPs (76 percent), while it remained very high among residents (70 percent), signaling a general upward trend in households' indebtedness for all population groups.
• According to displacement status, the average rCSI was highest among IDPs and returnees. In May 2021, approximately 91 percent of the surveyed households for each group (IDPs and returnees) reported relying on at least one food-based coping mechanism to cover their essential food needs amid the worsening economic conditions, compared to 87 percent for resident households. • In light of the deteriorating economic situation, Syrian households continued to grapple with sustainable income generating activities. In May 2021, approximately two out of five interviewed households in Syria (37 percent) indicated that they had lost one or more sources of income over the past month, with a higher proportion recorded among male-headed households (39 percent) compared to female-headed households (27 percent). This trend was more pronounced among IDPs (41 percent) and returnees (41 percent) compared to residents (35 percent). In addition, close to a third of interviewed households countrywide (29 percent) reported having lost more than half of their monthly income in May 2021, with a peak recorded in Al-Hasakeh (45 percent).

• The deteriorating economic situation and the widespread loss of livelihoods have led the Syrian families to further adopt foodbased coping strategies. In May 2021, 71 percent of interviewed households reported relying on less preferred or less expensive food, up by 14 percentage points from May 2020, with peaks recorded in Al-Hasakeh (80 percent) and Hama (80 percent). Approximately half of the surveyed households in Syria indicated a reduction in the number of meals consumed per day, an increase of 18 percentage points year-on-year, with a wide share recorded among female-headed households (59 percent) compared to male-headed households (48 percent). Also, to cope with food shortages, 45 percent of interviewed households reported reducing food consumption by adult members to prioritize their children's food consumption needs, representing a onequarter percent increase above the level of May 2020, with a higher proportion among IDPs (51 percent) and returnees (51 percent) compared to residents (41 percent). These findings highlight worrying signs of food-related stress, which further curbs access to adequate diets. Moreover, 14 percent of surveyed households across Syria reported taking children of the mandatory education age out of school to have them contribute to household tasks and income generating activities. This trend was much higher in Al-Hasakeh (38 percent) and Ar-Raqqa (27 percent).
• Moreover, Syrian households' income was reportedly disrupted due to a number of issues. In May 2021, close to half of the surveyed households (48 percent) reported having been impacted by a reduction in working hours and thus receiving a partial salary, with peaks recorded in Aleppo (63 percent) and Quneitra (55 percent). During the reporting period, 28 percent of surveyed households indicated job lay-offs. This was the case even among breadwinners having university degrees (35 percent). Also, nearly one out of five interviewed households in Syria (18 percent) reported reduction of revenues from business activities or agricultural sales.